2022 Oscars Betting Odds & Predictions

By Joe Short
Fact Checked by Matthew Asher

Oscars betting is heating up as we close in on the ceremony later this March – and it’s fair the say the bookmakers are predicting some dead-cert wins in 2022.

The likes of Encanto, The Power Of The Dog and Belfast could all thrive at the 94th Academy Awards in Los Angeles.

This year's Oscars offer something a little different to most. The Power Of The Dog is the first movie directed by a woman to receive more than 10 nominations. Japanese movie Drive My Car is nominated for Best Picture. And West Side Story is back precisely 50 years after the original screenplay won 11 Academy Awards!

Betting on the Oscars will not be straightforward this year. Yes, Power Of The Dog has its fans but the Committee is likely to spread the love in 2022.

With that in mind, here are the top candidates to win each Oscar category this year…

EDITOR'S NOTE: All odds listed below are via Fanduel Sportsbook.

Academy Awards Odds On Major Categories

Before we look at each category in detail, it's worth remembering that the Academy Awards odds are in constant flux. Big wagers on one movie or star to win will drive their odds down while inflating the price of others.

So, if you're planning on betting on the Oscars and believe everyone else will also wager on your choice, then get ahead of the curve and place your wagers before awards night!

Best Picture Odds

The Power of the Dog-14058.3%
CODA+10548.8%
Belfast+11008.3%
King Richard+23004.2%
Dune+28003.4%
West Side Story+35002.8%

The four big movies contending for Best Picture in 2022 are The Power Of The Dog (-140), CODA (+105), Belfast (+1100) and King Richard (+2300). Evidently, pundits and bookmakers believe Power Of The Dog is winning this category – and it's hard to argue against this view.

The Power Of The Dog arguably revitalized the Western drama many of us thought was dead years ago. It is nominated for 12 Academy Awards, including Best Actor for Benedict Cumberbatch and Best Supporting Actress for Kirsten Dunst. Right now only Belfast – a heartwarming movie reflecting on the Troubles in Northern Ireland – looks capable of rivaling The Power Of The Dog.

Best Actor Odds

Will Smith-60085.7%
Benedict Cumberbatch+55015.4%
Andrew Garfield+10009.1%
Denzel Washington+28003.4%
Javier Bardem+41002.4%

Benedict Cumberbatch may be the lead in The Power Of The Dog but it is Will Smith's portrayal of Venus and Serena Williams' father Richard in King Richard that is expected to steal the show.

Smith has twice been nominated for Best Actor at the Oscars (for Ali and The Pursuit of Happiness) and missed out both times. He is expected to finally win it here – and the bookies have him at -600 to beat Cumberbatch (+500) and outsider Andrew Garfield for his lead role in Tick, Tick... Boom! +1000).

 

Best Actress Odds

Jessica Chastain-14058.3%
Nicole Kidman+24029.4%
Kristen Stewart+50016.7%
Olivia Colman+50016.7%
Penelope Cruz+160014.3%

Betting on Oscars best actress odds could be one of the most difficult markets of this year's ceremony. Nicole Kidman (+240), Olivia Colman (+500) and Penelope Cruz (+1600) have all won Oscars before. Yet actress Jessica Chastain, nominated for this award for the first time since 2013, who could steal the show.

Chastain leads the Academy Award betting for best actress at -140 odds. She is almost neck-and-neck with Kidman – and usually when this happens it is the actor who hasn't won a gong yet that earns it. Bettors are likely to wager heavily on Chastain – star of The Eyes of Tammy Faye – because of this reason alone. 

Best Director Odds

Jane Campion-240096%
Steven Spielberg+23004.2%
Paul Thomas Anderson+23004.2%
Kenneth Branagh+23004.2%
Ryusuke Hamaguchi+29003.3%

The Oscars odds for best director category are possibly the most one-sided of all this year. The Power Of The Dog dictator Jane Campion is as much as -2400 to win this award. It is one of the major categories at the Oscars and no other movie seems close to winning. Pundits aren't likely to earn much profit on a straight-up wager here, but could combine it into a wider parlay bet and boost the odds.

Best Supporting Actor Odds

Troy Kotsur-35077.8%
Kodi Smit-McPhee+23030.3%
Ciaran Hinds+18005.3%
Jesse Plemons+28003.4%
J.K. Simmons+36002.7%

Troy Kotsur could be the big winner for movie CODA this year, as one of the favorites to win best supporting actor. Kotsur plays the weird and wonderful Frank, and is -350 to win this category. He's up against Kodi Smit-McPhee, who is +230, played the maligned Peter Gordon in The Power Of The Dog. This category is a toss-up between the two supporting actor nominees and not an easy one to wager on with any conviction.

Best Supporting Actress Odds

Ariana DeBose-200095.2%
Kirsten Dunst+75011.8%
Aunjanue Ellis+20004.8%
Judi Dench+25003.8%
Jessie Buckley+33002.9%

Another certain in this category – according to the bookmakers – comes in the form of Ariana DeBose for her portrayal of Anita in West Side Story. She is as slim as -2000 with some bookmakers to win, with the other best supporting actress nominees priced no lower than +750 (Kirsten Dunst, The Power Of The Dog). Judi Dench is +2500 to win a second career Academy Award for her role as Granny in Belfast.

Best Cinematography Odds

Dune-95090.5%
The Power of The Dog+27027%
The Tragedy of Macbeth+16005.9%
West Side Story+23004.2%
Nightmare Alley+29003.3%

We're now into the 'outside' categories where other movies come more into contention in the Oscars betting odds. The bookies expect best cinematography to go to Dune, the rebooted sci-fi tale from Frank Herbert's classic novel. Dune was a hit in the movie theatres, and its sheer ambition earned it a place among the Oscar nominations. At -950 Dune won't be beaten in this category, with The Power Of The Dog, The Tragedy of Macbeth and West Side Story a long way out.

Best Original Screenplay Odds

Licorice Pizza-13557.4%
Belfast+13542.6%
Don't Look Up+60014.3%
The Worst Person In the World+10009.1%
King Richard+29003.3%

A lot of pundits believe that if Belfast doesn't win Best Picture then it could win Best Original Screenplay. Yet more are backing Licorice Pizza to claim this award. In fact, roughly 50% of all bets on this market have backed the movie made by Paul Thomas Anderson to win here. That pressure has driven Licorice Pizza's odds down to -135, which doesn't offer too much value for pundits. Belfast at +135 could therefore be a smarter bet here on a contest that is, in reality, a coin toss between the two.

Best Adapted Screenplay Odds

CODA-16562.3%
The Power of The Dog+14540.8%
The Lost Daughter+60014.3%
Drive My Car+16005.9%
Dune+24004%

This looks like a dead certainty for CODA (-165). The Power Of The Dog (+145) with The Lost Daughter the third favorite at +600. However, no movie has won Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars since Moonlight in 2016. So there is scope for a wager on alternative runners here. The Lost Daughter could do better than expected this year, with Olivia Colman (best actress) and Jessie Buckley (best supporting actress) also nominated. 

Best Animated Film Odds

Encanto-110091.7%
The Mitchells vs. the Machines+80011.1%
Flee+10009.1%
Luca+17005.6%
Raya and the Last Dragon+35002.8%

Bettors are crushing Encanto's odds of winning this award. The odds to win for Encanto in the Best Animated Film sits at -1100. There is no more likely victor in the entirety of this year's Academy Awards. Luca, Flee and a number of other movies may have challenged for this gong in previous years – but the 2022 Oscar is almost certain to go to Encanto.

Best International Film Odds

Drive My Car-500098%
Flee+70012.5%
The Worst Person in the World+12007.7%
The Hand of God+33002.9%
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom+50002%

Drive My Car may not win Best Picture but the bookies are predicting a Best International Film award for this Japanese sensation. The Academy Awards are finally recognizing movies made outside Hollywood after Parasite won the big one in 2020. Drive My Car follows the story of a theatre director trying to produce Uncle Vanya on stage. It is an arthouse at its core and has won over hearts across the world. At -5000 it is almost guaranteed to win this award, ahead of The Worst Person In The World (+1200) and Flee (+700).

Best Documentary Odds

Summer of Soul-31075.6%
Flee+26027.8%
Attica+16005.9%
Ascension+32003%
Writing with Fire+35002.8%

Of all the major awards on show, Best Documentary is often overlooked. But this is a classic category and Flee could succeed here, even if it falls short in the Best International Film contest. Flee is the bookies' second favorite at +260. The doc's main rival is Summer Of Soul -310, the tale of the Harlem Festival in 1969. Both are worthy winners and picking a victor here will be tough – but the bookies may well be right in crushing the favorite's odds.

Best Costume Design Odds

Cruella-33076.7%
Dune+32023.8%
West Side Story+13007.1%
Cyrano+24004%
Nightmare Alley+35002.8%

Cruella made $233m at the box office and this stylish remake of the 101 Dalmatians story was always going to enter this category. Emma Stone is petrifying and dazzling in equal measures as Cruella de Vil, and it's no wonder the movie is -330 to win this award. West Side Story is pitched out at +1300, which is something of a surprise considering the vibrancy of the movie.

Best Visual Effects Odds

Dune-150093.8%
Spider-Man: No Way Home+10009.1%
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings+16005.9%
No Time to Die+22004.3%
Free Guy+34002.9%

This is different from Animated Film and gives effects artists a category of their own to thrive in. Dune is tipped to win at -1500, which won’t shock many pundits. This category is a chance to welcome some other minor nominees into the Oscars – namely Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings and Spider-Man: No Way Home. Neither should threaten Dune for this award, though.

Best Original Song Odds

No Time to Die - Billie Eilish-25071.4%
Dos Oruguitas - Lin Manuel Miranda+22031.3%
Be Alive - Beyonce & DIXSON+70012.5%
Down to Joy - Van Morrison+18005.3%
Somehow You Do - Diane Warren+18005.3%

Billie Eilish faces off against Lin Manuel Miranda in this intriguing category that could go either way. Pundits have Eilish’s ‘No Time To Die’ from the recent James Bond movie as a favorite to win here, at -188. However, Miranda’s sensational ‘Dos Oruguitas’ from Encanto has won fans the world over. His song is +175 to win, which shows just how tight this contest is. The result depends on the taste of the judges – Bond usually does well in minor categories at the Oscars, but Encanto arguably deserves more nominations than it’s got. This is a toss-up.

Notable Oscar Nominations

The fact Will Smith is still seeking a first Oscar may surprise many pundits, while the Kristen Stewart portrayal of Diana in Spencer is deserving of a nomination. But while Smith may finally win, Stewart is likely to miss out.

Nicole Kidman and Denzel Washington are Hollywood royalty and get nominations – although neither is expected to win.

Of the big categories at the Oscars, Licorice Pizza is flying under the radar with just three nominations, while Encanto also has three. The Oscar odds are leaning towards The Power Of The Dog for best picture, yet West Side Story cannot be overlooked for nostalgia alone.

Oscars Odds Most Sportsbooks Offer

Most sportsbooks have revealed their Oscar betting predictions based on their top contenders for the biggest categories. And the majority will be offering markets on the following:

  • Best Picture
  • Best Director
  • Best Actor
  • Best Actress
  • Best International Feature

Now, depending on the bookmaker there may well be more odds to choose from. Some will provide betting markets on the entire breadth of other categories, including Best Score, Best Film Editing and Best Sound. The likes of Encanto and Licorice Pizza could thrive in these supposed 'minor' categories.

The Power Of the Dog Odds

The Power Of The Dog will win Oscars this year, that is no doubt. What pundits are wondering, however, is how many this movie will claim. The Power Of The Dog is nominated in 12 categories – and the record for most wins by a single movie is 11, set by: Ben-Hur (1959), Titanic (1997) and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2003).

Bookmakers are expected to offer odds on the number of Oscars won by The Power Of The Dog. But realistically this movie isn’t going to win all 12. A mid-range haul is far more likely and the odds will reflect that chance.

Best Picture Category Voting Explained

There are more than 9,000 Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) members who vote during the Academy Awards. Each member is part of one of 17 branches, and each branch nominates for its own category.

So, directors vote for best director, sound engineers vote for best sound, etc.

This is fine for most categories where there are no more than five nominations. AMPAS members simply vote for one choice, and whoever has the most votes wins.

But the Best Picture category at the Oscars has a particular voting system that is different from the others. The reason for this is that there are ten movies contesting for Best Picture – and therefore one could theoretically win with just 11% of the votes, if the usual voting system were in place.

So, the Best Picture category voting system uses preferential voting, where members list their choice of movies in order. If a movie earns more than 50% of all first-choice votes, it wins the award. If no movie succeeds in getting 50%, the second-choice votes are taken into account. Then the third, then the fourth. This continues until one movie makes it over 50%.

Oscars Hosts This Year

As usual, the Academy Awards will be presented by top movie royalty. Over the years there has been some incredible hosts of the Oscars (who can forget Bob Hope’s 19 years on the stage?) and 2022 will be no different.

The 2022 Oscar hosts are:

  • Regina Hall

    Star of Support the Girls and Black Monday

  • Amy Schumer

    World Renowned Comedian

  • Wanda Sykes

    Comedic Writer and Actor

Who Will Present Best Picture Award At The Oscars?

The Best Picture award will take center stage at the Oscars this year but we don’t yet know who will present it. The likes of Kevin Costner, Lady Gaga, Chris Rock and Uma Thurman are down to present awards – but their exact categories are yet to be revealed.

Oscar Presenters Per Category

Indeed, so far the following stars have been announced as presenters of specific categories:

 

  • Youn Yuh-Jung

    Presenting Best Supporting Actor Award

  • Daniel Kaluuya

    Presenting Best Supporting Actress Award

  • Anthony Hopkins

    Presenting Best Actress Award

  • Frances McDormand

    Presenting Best Actor Award

  • Chloé Zhao

    Presenting Best Director Award

Oscars Betting FAQ

Contributors

Joe Short is a journalist and former Editor at the Daily Express, covering politics, football, tennis and darts, among other things.

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